Crops are looking very well with many winter barley crops shot and winter wheat crops growing by the day and T2's approaching quickly. Spring crops are flourishing now we've had decent rain and temperatures have warmed up. Many have turned cattle out to grass and busy with 1st cuts of silage.
Wheat futures have improved over the week which has supported new crop prices slightly whilst old crop markets remain a struggle with little demand from buyers at present, we are hoping this will change over the next couple of weeks.
Unfortunately we are seeing a consistent drop in old crop prices towards the bearish new crop values. Lack in demand, largely due to a 20 year high in maize imports of over 2.1MMT is making marketing opportunities for those with old crop left very challenging. There is still a good premium available for full grade milling wheat, please contact the office if you have any left to sell.
With the condition of global wheat crops favourable, world wheat production for 2019/20 is set at a record of 777.5MT which is keeping pressure on prices.
EU wheat production is estimated at 153.8MT for 2019/20 - a 4 year high.
Ukrainian wheat crop is set to be the largest in nearly 30 years.
Russian wheat harvest could be the second highest on record after a mild winter and a good spring.
However, we have seen a slight increase in new crop prices over the last couple of days thanks to a weakening of the pound and the continued wet weather in the mid-west US causing delays in corn and soybean planting. The latest USDA report as of the 12th May gave corn planting 36% and soybean 20% behind the 5 year average.
Wheat drilling is underway in Australia, with little rainfall forecast in the coming weeks. Australia has been experiencing drought conditions since 2016 which has had a huge effect on wheat production. The lack of rainfall forecast could delay drilling or force farmers to drill into dry conditions causing yield concerns.
Despite new crop prices falling quite significantly over the last couple of weeks, the progress in corn and soybean planting in the US and soil conditions in Australia are certainly one to watch over the next few weeks.
Although dryness across Europe has been alleviated for now, sub soil moisture levels are still below normal. With the start of harvest only a matter of weeks away in some parts of Europe and Black Sea regions, the time frame for the weather to impact harvest in these areas is getting smaller.
The old crop barley trade is still very quiet with farm to farm demand still being the main focus of any movements. Again, the record level of maize imported this year is largely responsible for the lack of demand from compounders.
The global barley harvest for 2019/20 is set to be at an 11 year high, largely due to an increase in EU production. With large supplies predicted across the EU and Black Sea countries, this may increase export competition to Middle-East regions and Audi Arabia which in tune could add further pressure to the UK market.
With new crop barley trading around £120/t for harvest, malting barley contracts are currently offering a significant premium over feed. We have a wide range of both winter and spring malting barley contracts available for harvest 2019. Please contact the office for further details.
A large South American soybean harvest as well as big Canadian oilseed stocks and the Canadian planting area only forecast to be down 1.6% on the 5 year average despite a challenging marketing outlook is set to leave ending stocks up 2.72MT to 27.09MT according to the latest WASDE report.
Surplus stock combined with a fall in estimated exports due to the African Swine Fever outbreak in China is keeping new crop prices under pressure. In April, China reported a fall of 20% to its sow herd due to the outbreak which is in turn is having a huge impact on soybean demand for feed. The latest tensions with the US/China trade deal is also a contributing factor to the subdued oilseed complex.
Despite this, new crop prices have rallied slightly over the last couple of days, partly due to currency and growing concerns over the slow progress in corn and soybean planting in the US. The latest USDA report has reduced the EU rapeseed forecast for 2019/20 down 400KT to 19.2MT, the lowest since 2008. Weather over the coming weeks is one to watch for the new crop oilseed markets.
We have got some offers for new season imported granular N + S products which we believe will be very competitive on both quality and price to the major suppliers. We don't expect the main manufacturers to release their new season terms until cereals week, we will be in contact with customers once we have prices.
For any outstanding current season fertiliser supplies please contact the office.
We are beginning to get bookings for seed for the coming autumn, please get in touch for information on our new varieties. Details are also on our website.
We are in the process of getting our seed brochure out to customers.
For any Countryside Stewardship mixes, Game Cover, Mustard and Maize seed, please contact the office.
We have got the dates for our trials days/evenings for summer 2019. Please contact the office and visit out website for details.
Syngenta Platform Site - Aldborough 29th May 2019
Bayer trials site - Stockbridge technology centre, Cawood 26th June 2019
KWS trials - East Heslerton 2nd July 2019